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Iron ore into the weak pattern

Time: 2017-03-16 │ Click: 

Abstract: Since the year since, a large number of steel furnace stock consumption, replenishment will significantly weaken the purchasing power greatly reduced. With the recent trend of rising ore prices blocked, the market high pressure, steel mills and further shift to low raw material inventory strategy to become a high probability event.

Since two weeks ago hit a new high in the past two years, iron ore futures began to weaken. This week, the main contract of iron ore 1705 fell 3.92%, breaking the 690 yuan / ton near the support level, the highest decline since 1 month. With the continuous rise in port inventories, as well as the domestic mining production increased significantly, the iron ore market supply pressure. However, in the current high profit margins, steel production is also very active, the demand for high-grade ore is still maintained at a considerable level, to provide some support for the ore price. Overall, in the current rebar prices up the case of weak, iron ore or this into the weak market.

Port stocks are even high

Data show that as of last Friday, the country's 45 major ports of iron ore stocks of 13.16 million tons, an increase of 850,000 tons per week; of which 70.31 million tons of Australian mines, an increase of 750,000 tons over the previous week; Brazilian mineral 26.64 million tons , Compared with the previous week to reduce 2.16 million tons. Mainly by the Spring Festival holiday during a large number of dry bulk carriers concentrated to Hong Kong impact, the number of port mine after the holiday show rose, the current inventory has been 10 consecutive weeks continued record highs. In the surrounding areas of Hebei steel industry limited by environmental protection production constraints, blast furnace operating rate has yet to be improved, iron ore supply pressure unprecedented.

In addition, according to the data of institutional integration, as of March 3 the week, the domestic large and medium-sized steel mills imported iron ore average inventory available days for 28 days, week than flat. In the background of the supply of dry ore outside the port, since the years since the steel furnace stock a lot of consumption, replenishment will significantly weaken the purchasing power greatly reduced. With the recent trend of rising ore prices blocked, the market high pressure, steel mills and further shift to low raw material inventory strategy to become a high probability event. In this case, if the demand for recovery of the seasonal factors, steel mills are still the marginal decline in the amount of space.

Domestic mines are rejuvenated

From the ore supply point of view, by the year after the import price of iron ore rose to stimulate the domestic mining production increased significantly the enthusiasm. As of March 3 the week, the national mining operating rate of 45.8%, from about a month before the 39.1% low significantly increased 6.7 percentage points. According to the production capacity, the capacity of more than 1 million tons of large-scale mining operating rate of 58.4%, 8.4 percentage points higher than the national average; production capacity of 300,000 -100 million tons between the medium-sized mine operating rate is only 20%, the chain also increased by only 2.2 percentage points, much lower than the average, showing the improvement of the mine operating rate, mainly by the large mine contribution.

The reason is that in recent years the local governments for environmental protection and safety production requirements have improved significantly, many companies difficult to meet compliance standards; Second, enterprises living in excess capacity of the industry, access to loans more difficult, more capital pressure Large; three mines once the cut-off time is longer, the resumption of labor on the equipment and personnel need to invest a lot of time and capital costs, due to large-scale mines in these areas there are advantages, so the production is relatively low difficulty. On the whole, although the domestic profits of the recent mine considerable, complex production sentiment, but the above factors to bring serious challenges lead to the actual complex production more difficult, short-term supply pressure is limited.

Steel furnace charge procurement positive

As of last Friday, Mysteel survey of 163 steel mills nationwide operating rate of 75.97%, WoW increased 0.83 percentage points, the highest since December last year, a new high; capacity utilization rate of 83.12%, week by 1.88 percentage points; The proportion of steel mills was 87.73%, the weekly increase of 1.23 percentage points, since the beginning of the year has continued to rise, and hit a new high since 2013. Benefit from the rebar as the representative of the strong performance of building materials, steel smelting profits are particularly rich, production enthusiasm continued to rise. However, in the current context of frequent environmental protection events, steel production activities to a certain extent been inhibited, so the procurement of high-grade iron ore is still more active, and to achieve the unit time to maximize the output of molten iron The

Steel to improve the production of the pursuit of high-grade iron ore caused by the structural tight, and thus boost the iron ore disk prices. However, as the traditional industry overcapacity of the steel industry, such a high level of profitability is bound to be difficult. Under the constraints of the terminal demand, it is expected that the profits of the future steel mills will be repaired with the larger callback of the steel price relative to the bulking varieties. In this process, the iron ore will also be transferred to the weak pattern.

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